Turnout in age groups key factor in by-election

Surveys show Park backed by 20s and 30s, but Na prevails among 50s and up


With Wednesday’s Seoul mayoral vote widely perceived as a curtain-raiser to the presidential race next year, political observers are zeroing in on several key factors that could determine the outcome such as the voter turnout among the young and the weather.

Latest surveys showed that opposition candidate Park Won-soon was mostly backed by voters in their 20s and 30s while support for ruling the Grand National Party’s Rep. Na Kyung-won was highest for those in their 50s and up.

Wednesday will also be the coldest day so far this fall, with the mercury forecast to dip to 2 degree Celsius in Seoul. The cold weather is likely to hold back some voters from going to the polls.

The results of the mayoral by-election will serve as an indicator of how far Ahn Cheol-soo, the popular professor who reiterated his unswerving endorsement of Park on Sunday, can take his quasi-political path. They will also offer a glimpse of the prospects of conservatives’ regimentation in the coming months.

Ahn, whose mere hint at running for Seoul mayor in early September immediately crushed the approval ratings for GNP’s presidential hopeful Park Geun-hye, has no doubt attracted a significant share of voters to civic activist Park Won-soon.

Park, often described as “awkward” by his own supporters, is also mentored by a savvy bunch of new figures of inspiration for the youth such as Cho Kuk, law professor at Seoul National University, and Kong Ji-young, writer of the book turned-movie based on the sexual abuse of disabled students. It remains to be seen whether regular listeners to a popular progressive political podcast, on which even the GNP leader has talked on, would have an impact on Wednesday’s vote as well.

Should the civic activist’s political experiment succeed, it would deal a blow to the current political system run by two major parties, observers say.

Heavyweights of the ruling party, in the meantime, campaigned hard a day ahead of the vote, with Park 0 supporting Na Kyung-won through the campaign since Oct. 13.

Park paid a visit to the office of Na’s camp in downtown Seoul Tuesday for her handshake rounds with the campaign officers and praise of Na while referring to her handwritten notebook on municipal affairs.

Having earned the nickname “the notebook princess” during her party chairwoman years, Park spoke about the notes she took on the city’s bus lanes, limited opportunities to use the childcare facilities and problems of the vaccination of infants.

After reading out the key policy suggestions to her fellow female politician and a closed-door chat, Park went on a 25-minute walking campaign with Na to Seoul Station.

An exit poll from the previous Seoul mayoral vote last year showed that 12.7 percent of the voters said they decided whom to pick just a day before coming to the polls.

By Kim So-hyun (sophie@heraldcorp.com)