South Korea's ruling and opposition candidates are in a neck-and-neck race for the Dec. 19 presidential race, according to public surveys released on Sunday, after a popular software mogul dropped out of contention after talks for a liberal alliance stalled.
The upcoming vote has become a two-horse race between Park Geun-hye, the front-runner for the ruling Saenuri Party, and Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) after independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo quit on Friday to throw his support behind Moon.
Shortly after Ahn's resignation, several media outlets conducted polls to get a first glimpse of public sentiment on the race.
According to a phone survey by broadcaster SBS and pollster TNS Korea conducted Saturday, Park garnered support 43.4 percent support from 1,000 adults, followed by Moon with 37.6 percent.
However, 18.1 percent of respondents were undecided, with an error rate of 5 percent.
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(The Korea Herald) |
In another poll by the mass-circulation daily newspaper JoongAng Ilbo and research firm Mbrain conducted on the same day, Park received 3.4 percentage points more than Moon with 41.3 percent, which was within the margin of error rate of 5 percent.
However, a third survey by broadcaster MBC and Hankook Research showed Moon leading with about 2 percentage points more than Park, while 19.6 percent of the respondents were undecided. The survey of 1,000 adults also had a margin of error rate of 5 percent.
While many have paid keen attention to where most of Ahn's supporters would move in the coming weeks, the polls showed that nearly half of them backed Moon, with a quarter of them supporting Park and the rest still undecided.
As many respondents said they will take more time before making a decision, while some said they would not vote, political parties are expected to gear their campaigns to attract Ahn's supporters, largely young and liberal voters.
Meanwhile, the two candidates showed stark contrast on their home turfs.
Park, a daughter of late President Park Chung-hee, a rallying point for conservatives, received 73.8 percent in North Gyeongsang Province, a traditional conservative stronghold.
Moon, who served as chief of staff under the liberal administration of Roo Moo-hyun, drew 69.3 percent from Jeolla Province, which has picked liberal candidates in the past, according to the survey by MBC.
(Yonhap News)
<관련 한글 기사>
安사퇴 후 朴-文 지지율 여론조사, 제각각
무소속 안철수 후보 사퇴 직후새누리당 박근혜, 민주당 문재인 대선후보의 지지율이 오차범위 내에서 앞서거나 뒤지는 대혼전을 벌이고 있는 것으로 나타났다.
안 후보 지지층 가운데 문 후보 지지로 이동한 비율은 45%∼55%로 조사된 가운데 지지후보를 유보하는 부동층이 커져 대선의 변수로 떠올랐다.
SBS와 여론조사기관인 TNS가 안 후보 사퇴후인 지난 24일 성인남녀 1천명을 대상으로 실시한 유무선 RDD 전화조사(허용오차 95%, 신뢰수준 ±3.1%p)에서 박 후보의 지지도는 43.4, 문 후보는 37.6%로 나타났다. 박 후보가 오차범위인 5.8%포인트로 앞서는 수치다. 그러나 응답자의 18.1%는 답변을 유보했다.
중앙일보와 엠브레인이 24일 실시한 1천명 대상 여론조사(허용오차 95%, 신뢰수준 ±3.1%포인트)에서도 박 후보가 44.7%로 41.3%를 얻은 문 후보보다 3.4%포인트 앞서는 것으로 조사됐다. 부동층은 9.9%로 나타났다.
그러나 MBC와 한국리서치가 같은날 실시한 1천명 대상 여론조사(허용오차 95% 표본오차±3.1%포인트)에서는 박 후보 39.2%, 문 후보 41.2%로 문 후보가 2%포인트 앞섰다. "모른다"고 답하거나 응답하지 않은 비율은 19.6%였다.
이들 3개 여론조사에서는 안 후보의 지지층 가운데 그의 후보사퇴 후 문 후보 지지를 표명한 비율이 45%∼55%로 나타났으며, 박 후보로 이동한 비율은 20%대였다.
SBS의 조사에서 응답자의 89.7%는 이번 대선에서 투표할 의향이 있다고 답했다. 지지후보를 계속 지지할 것이라는 응답률은 78.8%, 바꿀수 있다고 말한 비율은 15.5%로 조사됐다.
(코리아헤럴드)
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