Foreign bankers expect BOK to cut key rate in October

Global investment banks predict that South Korea's central bank will slash the benchmark interest rate once again within this year amid unfavorable economic conditions, a survey showed Friday.

Some expect the Bank of Korea to lower the rate a few more times before July next year, as the slump of Asia's fourth-largest economy persists, according to the report by the Korea Center for International Finance. 

The BOK cut the policy rate to a record low of 1.25 percent in June but kept it unchanged in its latest monetary policy meeting earlier this week. BOK officials cited worries mainly about mounting household debts.

Major foreign IBs said the freeze seems to be attributable to mixed economic data released in the wake of the June rate cut.

They said the BOK, however, will likely be forced to lower the rate around in October as global trade shrinks, employment data keep worsening and the local economy feels the full-scale impact of corporate restructuring.

Standard Chartered and Credit Suisse raised the possibility of additional cuts in the mid to long term amid the constant strengthening of the local currency.

Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas and Barclays pointed to sluggish exports and investment, saying the BOK is forecast to cut the rate in October and also revise down the growth outlook for South Korea's economy this year.

The BOK issues the outlook every three months. In its July report, the bank expected the economy to grow 2.7 percent in 2016, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous figure.

Nomura bet on the BOK's rate cut in October and another in March next year, with HSBC presenting the broader timeframe of the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017.

HSBC did not rule out the possibility that the BOK will delay an adjustment to the rate out of concern about household debt and on expectations of aggressive budget spending next year.

Morgan Stanley said the BOK may trim the rate three times before the end of the first half of next year.

"Many foreign IBs are expecting South Korea to slash its key interest rate at least once more in the latter half of this year due to sluggish global trade, uncertainties related to Brexit and the fallout from corporate restructuring," the center said. (Yonhap)