[Kim Seong-kon] Lessons from watching US midterm elections

In the US midterm elections on Nov. 8, many political commentators and analysts had predicted a “red wave” or even a “red tsunami” that would have resulted in Republicans’ taking control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. However, no such thing happened. Instead, Republicans unexpectedly underperformed in the midterm.

Expectations do not always match reality. What people thought would happen initially is that the Republican Party would win the elections by a landslide victory, take over the Capitol and then cancel the Biden administration’s key projects, many of which required speed and a sizable budget. However, it turns out that Republicans will likely hold a narrow majority in the House only, not the Senate. The press has labeled it a significant victory for President Joe Biden.

Experts say that the outcome of the elections is an indictment of the Republican Party, considering that the Biden administration suffered from many disadvantages, such as the president’s low approval rate, high inflation and a rise in illegal immigration. Obviously, some voters who did not support the Democratic Party could not turn to the Republican Party, which many found disappointing. Surprisingly, according to the media, Biden’s midterm scores have turned out to be even better than Bill Clinton’s or Barack Obama’s.

Experts also pointed out that the outcome of the midterm gave Republicans the opportunity to reflect on the situation of the Republican Party that is still dominated by former President Donald Trump. Trump handpicked or endorsed a number of candidates who did not survive the midterm elections. Thus, it would seem his approval does not carry the credibility it was previously thought it had.

Political commentators have written articles entitled, “Republicans blame Trump for subpar election result,” “Come on, Republicans. Our midterm losses are the final straw: Dump Trump, now,” and “It’s time to move on: Have the US midterms finally loosened Trump’s grip on the Republican Party?”

Even the New York Post and the Wall Street Journal, previously strong supporters of Trump, now blame Trump for the Republican Party’s poor performance in the midterms. On its front page, the New York Post exhibited a cartoon that depicted Trump as the nursery rhyme character, Humpty Dumpty, with a comment, “Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall -- can all the GOP’s men put the party back together again?” It parodied the nursery rhyme lyrics: “Humpty Dumpty sat on the wall. Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king’s horses and all the king’s men couldn’t put Humpty together again.”

On the other hand, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis now seems clearly on the rise as a potential presidential candidate for the Republican Party in 2024. Although the New York Post wrote that DeSantis might be “DeFuture” of the Republican Party, nothing is certain now. Trump seems set to run for the presidency again no matter what, believing in his ardent supporters.

Meanwhile, Trump supporters have declared the midterm elections as fraudulent, just as they had condemned the 2020 presidential election. Perhaps this time moderate Republicans were reluctant to vote for those who defied elections. It is true that Trump has numerous avid supporters. At the same time, however, he has numerous people who do not like him.

The prospect that Trump might face a trial for tax fraud and his connection to the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol might have caused the loss of support from independent voters. Another reason the Republican Party lost votes, especially those of women, was the decision of the highly conservative Supreme Court to strike down federal protections for abortion.

The Korean people are now closely observing the American midterms because the results will surely affect South Korea-US relations. For example, if Trump had been empowered and triumphant in the midterms, he could have marched into the White House again. Then, South Korea should prepare for the withdrawal of the US Army from the Korean Peninsula because he said he would do it when reelected.

For South Korea, things luckily might turn out a little differently. Nevertheless, DeSantis, too, is a well-known Trump supporter, even though the two may not be on good terms when and if they will have to compete with each other for the presidential candidacy in 2024.

Currently, nothing is for sure now. Thus, we should wait and see, while preparing for all the possibilities. Meanwhile, it is a relief that the Biden administration will be able to keep propelling its policies with the Senate’s support. South Korea-US relations will be intact and continue harmoniously in the meantime.

South Korea, too, will have midterm elections soon.

As the American people did, the Korean people should also vote prudently so the government can pursue its policies smoothly and actively in these difficult times. Otherwise, our country will end up wasting time and energy, and losing precious opportunities to become a global leader and a prosperous country. Then, we will be left behind, while other countries surpass us.

That would be the last thing we want to see.

By Kim Seong-kon

Kim Seong-kon is a professor emeritus of English at Seoul National University and a visiting scholar at Dartmouth College. The views expressed here are his own. -- Ed.