North Korea going for short-range missiles a ‘Japan-conscious move’: Seoul’s ex-vice defense chief

CHEONAN, South Chungcheong Province -- Shin Beom-chul, who until recently served as the deputy national defense minister, said that North Korea limiting its weapons testing to short-range missiles last week “may have been a Japan-conscious move.”

Speaking with The Korea Herald, he said that as Pyongyang has been courting a summit with Tokyo, “anything beyond short-range missiles being fired toward the sea east of Korea would have the potential to be perceived by the Japanese as a provocation aimed at Japan."

North Korea took a break in missile firing for about a month before launching several short-range ballistic missiles toward the sea off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula a week ago.

North Korea on Monday said that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has proposed a summit with its leader Kim Jong-un “at the earliest possible date,” according to a statement carried by Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency on Monday.

Shin said that North Korea was “likely trying to put on a show of force while at the same time looking not to offend Japan.”

Following the ROK-US joint military drills earlier this month, North Korea probably wanted to “show off its determination not to be pushed around,” and that it “won’t be shushed down,” he said.

Like officials and experts in Seoul have warned, Shin agreed that further provocations from North Korea aimed at South Korea’s National Assembly election in April were “anticipated.”

“North Korea may try to surprise us ahead of the general election,” he said.

“The short, medium and long-range missile tests are all too known and familiar. North Korea may launch a second reconnaissance satellite, as warned. Provocations in cyberspace are also possible,” he said, on the type of provocations that may be initiated by Pyongyang over the election season.

He also said that the Yoon Suk Yeol administration would be “best advised” to reach out to the Donald Trump campaign to prepare for a possible shift in North Korea policies in Washington, should the former US president win.

“If Trump wins, there will be another shift in US foreign policy. It would be important to prepare for such a sudden change in US attitudes toward North Korea by establishing contacts during the presidential campaign,” he said. “It is always best to act fast.”

Shin left the Defense Ministry in October last year to launch a second bid to enter the National Assembly in Cheonan, an important swing district in South Chungcheong Province.

He is up against Rep. Moon Jin-seog, the Democratic Party lawmaker who beat him 49.3 percent to 47.9 percent in the previous Assembly election in 2020. Shin and Moon ran neck-and-neck in the 21st general election four years ago, 49.34 percent to 47.92 percent.

This time around, the rematch between the two is also shaping up to be another close race, with the latest poll placing his Democratic Party rival ahead of him by 4 percentage points.