How should S. Korea tackle growing China conundrum?

As US-China strategic competition has continued to intensify with expectations that it will likely persist, Seoul finds itself increasingly ensnared in a web of structural challenges in its relations with Beijing.

With the rivalry itself serving as a key determinant that has caused challenges in critical areas such as economics and security, South Korea's already delicate and intricate China conundrum has become further complicated.

South Korea-China relations have reached a pivotal crossroads, and a central question is how Seoul can meticulously craft a China policy that not only navigates the ongoing turmoil but also addresses the challenges straining its ties with Beijing.

During a forum Monday co-hosted by The Plaza Project, a National Assembly-registered think tank, alongside the South Korea-China Parliamentarians' Union and the US-China Policy Institute at Ajou University, experts weighed in on Seoul's strategies for surmounting structural constraints.

"The South Korea-China relationship is in crisis, with some describing it as the worst it has ever been. At this critical juncture, any misguided diplomatic decisions by either country could push the two countries into a prolonged period of mutual friction and confrontation," Kim Heung-kyu, the founder and director of the US-China Policy Institute at Ajou University and president of the Plaza Project, said during the forum.

"As neighboring countries, their interests are deeply intertwined, and the more they clash, the greater the damage both will suffer."

Structural challenges

Experts noted that since establishing diplomatic relations between South Korea and China in 1992, the economic partnership between the two countries -- characterized by the notion of "security with the US and economy with China" -- was fundamentally anchored in the cooperative relationship between Washington and Beijing.

However, the 2010s, particularly the intensification of the US-China trade dispute in 2018, marked a turning point. The escalating strategic competition between the US and China has triggered a profound shift in South Korea's relationship with China, its largest trading partner, according to experts.

Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Center for Chinese Studies at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, described South Korea and China as being "in the process of redefining their relationship."

"The South Korea-China relationship has entered the phase of redefinition, driven not only by bilateral dynamics but also by broader international forces, with the US-China strategic competition emerging as a primary factor," Kim said.

Kim emphasized that Korea-China relations are confronting mounting "structural challenges" across political, security and economic spheres.

Tensions arising from diverging values, such as human rights and democracy -- now more prominent amid the alignment of US-backed democracies against an authoritarian axis led by China -- are deepening the rift between South Korea and China.

At the same time, their industrial cooperation has transitioned from mutual complementarity to direct competition in sectors such as home appliances, mobile phones, electric vehicles, secondary batteries and OLED technology, driven by China’s industrial advancement.

Rising nationalism in China has exacerbated cultural disputes, particularly over South Korean heritage like kimchi and hanbok, which China increasingly claims as part of its own heritage.

In the military and security realm, the US is evolving its Indo-Pacific strategy from a traditional "hub-and-spoke" model to a more interconnected, lattice-like network aimed at strengthening regional alliances. South Korea is fortifying its military alliance with the US, improving relations with Japan and enhancing trilateral security cooperation with the two countries -- moves that have created diplomatic, economic and security-related strain with China.

"The key issue now for South Korea is how to navigate these structural challenges within the current Korea-China relationship. Successfully addressing these challenges will be vital for redefining the relationship and shaping its future trajectory, which warrants close attention," Kim from the KNDA said.

Kim Yeikyoung, a legislative research officer at the National Assembly Research Service, emphasized that "the challenge of balancing the Korean government's values-based diplomacy with its pragmatic approach toward China will remain a persistent dilemma amid the US-China strategic competition and the deepening confrontation between the liberal and authoritarian blocs."

South Korea should be prepared to navigate scenarios where it may be called upon clearly to articulate its stance on China's "core interests" at the global stage -- including contentious issues such as the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the human rights situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

"It is crucial for South Korea to develop responses and establish principles that align with its identity and role as a middle power in the international community," argued Kim Yeikyoung.

"Furthermore, it necessitates careful consideration of how to effectively convey these messages and provide global public goods that are universally accepted by the international community, in alignment with the (Yoon Suk Yeol) administration's goal of positioning South Korea as a global pivotal state," she said.

She also said the Yoon administration should strive to address key issues and challenges between Seoul and Beijing including stabilizing supply chains and promoting people-to-people exchanges as agreed upon in the meeting between Yoon and Chinese Premier Li Qiang this May in Seoul.

National interests first

Ahn Chi-young, a professor at the Department of Chinese Language and Cultural Studies at Incheon National University, underscored that South Korea "should develop a China strategy based on national interests."

"The core objective of our China strategy must be to safeguard our security, peace, prosperity and continued development," Ahn said during the forum.

Ahn emphasized the importance of cooperating with China to ensure the safety and stability of South Korea and the Korean Peninsula and to address and eliminate any threats to these goals.

"It is imperative to critically evaluate whether subordinating our security to the dynamics of US-China relations driven by China's emergence as a superpower -- and, in turn, positioning China as an adversary -- genuinely serves our national interests," Ahn said.

"If China's rise as a superpower poses a threat to our security, we may need to strengthen and expand our alliance (with the US) for protection. However, if this is not the case, joining a US-led anti-China alliance -- and thereby antagonizing China -- could exacerbate security risks for us, which would not be in our national interest."

Ahn also voiced strong opposition to the Yoon administration's China policy, criticizing it for relying on fixed assumptions about the US-China rivalry despite the rapidly changing international landscape.

Ahn argued that Seoul's current China policy is based on the premise that the "US-China strategic competition is of existential significance, akin to the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, with the expectation that the US will ultimately prevail." He further asserted that South Korea's approach assumes there is "no alternative but to choose between the US and China."

Principled but flexible

Kim Han-kwon emphasized that as the US and China engage in long-term strategic competition, characterized by a mix of rivalry and dialogue, South Korea should prepare for various scenarios. Kim elucidated that Seoul should develop policies that adhere to clear principles while improving its diplomatic flexibility and maneuverability needed to adapt as circumstances evolve.

"To that end, the crux lies in achieving strategic autonomy within the international arena," Kim said. "While maintaining the importance of our alliance (with the US), we must prioritize securing the space needed to exercise this autonomy, enabling us to uphold our principles while remaining flexible. It is imperative that we strengthen our policy capabilities."

Park Soong-Chan, a professor in the Department of Chinese Studies at Yong In University, said "Living alongside a powerful country like China is our inescapable reality, and we must approach this relationship with greater wisdom."

"Rather than trying to change China, we should accept its system and institutions while focusing on enhancing our own strategic values," Park said.

Park observed that the US has shifted its approach, recognizing that China is unlikely to change, which has led to a deepening decoupling between the two powers. In response, the US, while striving to maintain its global dominance, has paradoxically adopted a firm stance on conflict management to prevent further escalation with China.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan embarked on a three-day visit to China on Tuesday to hold talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other officials, for instance. This trip marks the first visit by a US national security adviser to China since 2016.

"We must accept this reality with sober pragmatism and prioritize our national interests accordingly," Park said. "We need the boldness and wisdom to uphold our clear and strong principles, using both the US and China as leverage to advance our own interests."