Ex-N. Korean diplomat in Cuba proposes paths to regime collapse from within

Ri Il-gyu, the former second-ranking North Korean diplomat in Cuba, on Tuesday publicly proposed strategies to destabilize the Kim Jong-un regime from within by promoting societal change in the North, including the inflow of external information to the North Korean populace.

"The so-called elite class, or the cadre class, has undergone a significant shift in their perception of the regime," Ri, who served as a counselor at the North Korean Embassy in Havana, said during the Global Korea Forum 2024 at the Lotte Hotel Seoul -- his first public appearance at a publicly disclosed, livestreamed event since defecting to South Korea in November last year.

"They've become disillusioned with the regime due to Kim Jong-un's impulsive behavior," Ri emphasized, explaining that minor mistakes can lead to execution and dismissal, "creating an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty among the cadres about their own fate."

Ri underscored that "North Korea has changed significantly and will continue to change" during the second session, "Understanding North Korea’s Realities for Unification Preparation," of the forum co-hosted by the Unification Ministry and Yonsei University.

Ri explained that "around 80 percent of North Korean society, including both ordinary citizens and cadre, views the (Kim Jong-un) regime negatively, but they are hesitant to rise up."

"There are two main reasons for this. First, the regime has established a tightly woven surveillance and control network, operating like a spider's web. Second, the brutal repression, exemplified by merciless executions, creates a climate of fear that prevents people from taking action," Ri explained.

Highlighting South Korea's pivotal role in driving change within North Korean society, Ri proposed "strategies to inflow external information to North Korean people and induce North Korea's collapse from within."

Ri, for instance, urged the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to aggressively promote its new Unification Doctrine, unveiled by President Yoon on Aug. 15, National Liberation Day, to "thwart Kim Jong-un's efforts to suppress the people's desire for reunification through the two-state policy, and to spread the perception with North Korea that war and confrontation lead to self-destruction, while unification brings prosperity."

The Yoon administration's unification doctrine centers on achieving what it has labeled "freedom-based unification," with North Koreans as the primary drivers. The policy emphasizes the importance of freedom and human rights in the North, aiming to inspire a strong desire for unification among North Koreans.

Ri said, "I believe that if President Yoon Suk Yeol's unification doctrine reaches the North Korean people, it will resonate deeply with them."

Ri also called for the South Korean government to "win over North Korean elites, including those stationed abroad, to build a force for change within the country."

"Many among officials or cadre, including those who are currently stationed abroad, harbor concerns about their future roles in a unified Korea, wondering if they might be disadvantaged," Ri said.

"It’s crucial (for Seoul) to continually reinforce the understanding that, under the North Korean regime, everyone -- from cadre to workers, farmers and intellectuals -- has lived as slaves to the Kim family. Therefore, I believe it is essential to bring over such individuals, making them aware that they are the key agents capable of bringing about change in North Korea."

Ri also called for the Yoon administration to "stir up unrest among North Korean residents by showcasing the stable resettlement and success stories of North Korean defectors."

Ri highlighted that the Jangmadang Generation -- North Koreans born in the 1980s and 1990s who came of age during the Arduous March and witnessed the collapse of the public distribution system, incorporating black markets into their daily lives -- along with youth today influenced by South Korea’s cultural wave are expected to play a pivotal role in driving change within North Korean society.

Since mid-July, Ri has given interviews to both South Korean and international media outlets and has delivered lectures to South Korean lawmakers and members of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, the presidential body on unification. However, Tuesday’s event marked Ri's first public appearance at an open forum attended by the public, including foreign embassy representatives in Seoul, experts and students.