NK nuclear test 'possible' around US election in Nov., says Yoon aide

The scenario of North Korea conducting a nuclear test is "possible," and Pyongyang could conduct such a test for the first time in seven years either before or after the United States presidential election in November, President Yoon Suk Yeol's national security aide said Monday.

Shin Won-sik, Yoon's national security adviser, told Yonhap News TV in a televised interview that North Korea could potentially conduct its seventh nuclear test given its need to advance its nuclear weapon capability, and the timing of it could be imminent.

"Technologywise, North Korea's seventh nuclear test would be inevitable because it is tasked with developing a smaller nuclear warhead," Shin said. "North Korea stands prepared for the seventh nuclear test upon determination by its leader, Kim Jong-un."

The timing of a nuclear test would depend on North Korea's decision after measuring its strategic gains from the test, said the retired three-star Army general who was also formerly defense minister.

"Our view is that the period before or after the US presidential election could be considered," he said.

The US presidential election will be held on Nov. 5.

On the same day, Shin said in another televised interview with YTN that the trigger point for North Korea to conduct a nuclear test would be its own estimate that its strategic advantage would exceed the losses it would suffer following such a test.

"North Korea is looking to increase its leverage (in its future diplomacy with the United States) before or after the US presidential election," Shin said.

He also said North Korea is trying to draw international attention through a series of nuclear provocations, including its latest revelation of a uranium enrichment facility used to produce weapons-grade nuclear materials. The level of its provocations would vary depending on whether Pyongyang achieves strategic gains in dealing with the US, according to Shin.

"If North Korea fails to achieve its political goals through its revelation of the uranium enrichment facility, it will turn to other activities like extracting (plutonium by reprocessing) spent fuel rods from a nuclear reactor in Yongbyon facilities (in North Pyongan Province). If this fails again, we cannot rule out the possibility of a nuclear test," Shin told YTN.

Against this backdrop, Shin slammed Yoon's liberal predecessor, former President Moon Jae-in, for his approach to the peace process on the Korean Peninsula, blaming Moon's efforts to build peace through dialogue with North Korea for "rather allowing North Korea to buy time for nuclear weapon development."

Shin's remarks came a couple of weeks after North Korea's state-owned media revealed on Sept. 13 undated images of a uranium enrichment facility, with North Korean leader Kim seen inspecting it.

North Korea announced its first nuclear weapons test in 2006, three years after its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Its most recent nuclear test took place at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Hamgyong Province in September 2017.

The international community does not recognize North Korea as a "nuclear-weapon state" with the official right to possess nuclear weapons, as it is not a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Earlier in January 2023, South Korea's state-owned Korea Institute for Defense Analyses estimated that North Korea was to own up to 166 nuclear warheads by 2030, using either uranium or plutonium.

Meanwhile, Shin said in the interviews that a trilateral summit between leaders of South Korea, the US and Japan will likely take place by the end of this year, bolstered by the three countries' staunch support for three-way cooperation regardless of leadership changes in Japan and the US.