[Kim Seong-kon] Hoping for no 'October surprises' this year

In 2006, I briefly stayed in Buffalo, New York, on my way from the University of California, Berkeley to Harvard. In October that year, a heavy blizzard hit Buffalo so hard that everyone was stuck at home for about a week, suffering through all manner of ordeals, from blackouts and empty refrigerators to road blocks caused by huge piles of snow. The people of Buffalo called the untimely weather calamity “the October surprise,” because a blizzard was not expected in the fall.

In the US, though, an “October surprise” usually means a surprising event in that month that could heavily influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential election in the first week of November. Sometimes the event occurs spontaneously, while at other times it is deliberately planned. Either way, an October surprise can play a decisive role in the outcome of the November election. Naturally, American presidential candidates cannot help but get nervous about October surprises because they might harm them and benefit their political opponent.

October surprises have a long history in America.

In the 1956 US presidential election, the Suez Canal Crisis and Hungarian Revolution were October surprises that brought victory to Dwight Eisenhower. In the 1972 presidential election, Henry Kissinger’s announcement, “We believe that peace is at hand,” contributed to the victory of Richard Nixon because it appealed to the voters who wanted to see an end to the Vietnam War.

More recently, October surprises include the allegations of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server during her tenure in the government, US intelligence agencies’ public accusation of Russia’s interference in the US election process and the New York Times report on Donald Trump’s astronomical amount of debt. They all occurred in October, just before the presidential election.

South Korea, too, has had her share of October surprises in the past. During the military dictatorship, for example, the government announced that it had newly discovered another underground tunnel coming from North Korea, just before the presidential election. As a result, the sense of crisis made the people want to reelect the former general for president for the sake of national security.

Later, when South Korea was democratized, the civilian government also used tension with North Korea for political gain, such as the feasibility of imminent peace talks with North Korea, or a possible visit of the North Korean leader to Seoul, just before the election. Thus, the Korean people called it the “North Wind” blowing in election season.

Although it was never particularly a surprise, the North Wind effectively took advantage of South Koreans’ fears of a second Korean War and thus tended to succeed in influencing upcoming elections. Whenever the North Wind blew in South Korea, therefore, the outcome of presidential elections was predictable. Looking back on those days, we now realize they were not fair elections.

The 2024 American presidential election is just around the corner. These days, people wonder, “What will be this year’s October surprise?”

No one knows yet, but it will surely come soon and affect the outcome of the November election. If something happens spontaneously, then there is nothing we can do about it. On the other hand, if some people deliberately conjure up an October surprise in order to harm their political opponent, we should not be swayed by it and stand firm instead.

Despite such October surprises, the candidates must go through a fair competition. If a disqualified candidate marched into the White House or a highly qualified candidate lost the election thanks to a surprising event before the election, it would be not only unfair, but also unfortunate for the future of America.

In my town in New England, a house set up a signboard supporting the Republican candidate, which says, “This is our last chance to save America.” Another house across the street displays a signboard for the Democratic candidate, saying, “This is our last chance to save democracy.” Both the Republicans and Democrats seem to have their own compelling reasons for their candidate.

Experts have warned that the world order will change radically depending on who will lead America for the next four years. Thus, the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election will affect not only America herself, but also many other countries on Earth. That is why many foreigners are closely watching.

We want no more October surprises that may influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in America. We want to see a fair competition and the American people’s wise choice unaffected by outside forces. We strongly hope that Americans elect a superbly qualified leader not only for America alone, but also for the entire world.

If an October surprise happens despite our wish, we do not want it to affect the outcome of the American election. It all depends on the American people’s discretion and maturity.

Kim Seong-kon

Kim Seong-kon is a professor emeritus of English at Seoul National University and a visiting scholar at Dartmouth College. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.