[Lee Byung-jong] Time for stronger Seoul-Tokyo ties

For many young South Korean tourists, Japan is no doubt their favorite travel destination. It's close, cheap and familiar. They can indulge in shopping or enjoy tonkatsu (fried pork chops) or ramen. Yet until recently, they didn’t publicize or brag about their trips to Japan on social media. A strong anti-Japan sentiment caused by diplomatic rows between Seoul and Tokyo kept them from doing so. But all that has changed since their leaders began to mend bilateral relations early last year. Young Koreans don’t have to hide their travels in Japan now that the two neighboring countries have become closer again.

Behind such changes are Seoul’s initial attempts at rapprochement. Since taking office two years ago, President Yoon Suk-yeol made normalized Seoul-Tokyo relations a foreign policy priority. By offering concessions on the deadlocked issues of past colonial history, he first offered an olive branch. Yoon visited Tokyo for the first Korea-Japan summit in a decade and then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida soon reciprocated. Since then, Yoon and Kishida have met 12 times as part of their “shuttle diplomacy,” the highest number of summit meetings for both leaders. At least in terms of summit diplomacy, the two countries are currently enjoying a “renaissance.”

That momentum could be furthered by the arrival of Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba. Known as a moderate conservative, he is more humble and apologetic than his predecessors when it comes to issues related to Japan’s colonial atrocities. He has often cited Japan’s responsibility for strained relations between Seoul and Tokyo. In that vein, Ishiba has refrained from visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, the memorial site for Japanese war-dead that has been frequented by many Japanese politicians despite opposition from Koreans and other victims of Japanese imperialism.

Ishiba’s premiership is seen positively by many Koreans also because he is in general against the Japanese far-right movement that was driven by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. As Abe's bitter rival, Ishiba objected to the late leader's desire to change Japan’s Constitution to increase the country’s military presence in the world. Rather, Ishiba proposes to create an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a collective security mechanism in the region. A former defense minister and security expert, he believes Asia could be swept in a major geopolitical upheaval as China, Russia and North Korea join hands as a growing threat in the region.

Ishiba’s geopolitical concerns are likely to strengthen Seoul-Tokyo cooperation as an essential part of the trilateral military partnership involving Washington. Facing common adversaries on the continent, the three countries have increased their security cooperation by sharing more information and conducting joint military drills. The highlight of that partnership was the Camp David Summit in August last year, where President Biden hosted the two Asian leaders as part of his grand Indo-Pacific strategy of countering an increasingly assertive China.

Seoul and Tokyo need to lock in the three-way partnership due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election next month. If former President Donald Trump wins the election, the partnership could be seriously tested, given Trump’s unpredictability. In fact, the recent improvement in Seoul-Tokyo relations is partly attributed to President Biden’s strong push to bring the two key Asian allies of the US together.

For Seoul, there are other reasons why it needs closer ties with Tokyo. Whether Koreans like it or not, Japan is a major player in the international community that can either help or hurt Korea’s foreign policy goals. For President Yoon in particular, his ambition of making Korea a "global pivotal state" via more participation in global affairs hinges on the cooperation of many powerful nations, including Japan. For example, Korea can achieve its dream of becoming a member of the Group of 9, replacing the current Group of 7, with the help of Japan. As the only Asian member of the G7, Japan is thought to be unfavorable to the expansion of the rich countries’ club that could include Korea and Australia.

Despite the recent thaw across the East Sea, the future is not certain. While the Japanese government is expected to continue the current path for the time being under Ishiba, the Korean government might change its course in the long run. If the current ruling party of President Yoon were to lose in the 2027 presidential election, everything could return to square one. The opposition Democratic Party is highly critical of Yoon’s detente toward Japan, calling it “a diplomacy of capitulation.” There is a chance that a new Seoul administration would scrap its pacts with Tokyo, as did Yoon’s predecessor, President Moon Jae-in. Moon canceled his own predecessor’s deals and promises with Japan, plunging bilateral relations to the lowest point since 1965 when the two nations normalized diplomatic ties.

For that reason, it is now Japan’s turn to show some sincerity in its efforts to mend fences. Critics believe Japan has not really reciprocated Yoon’s peace initiatives, except for agreeing on summit meetings and undoing the retaliatory measures it took during that low-point in relations. Kishida didn’t fully apologize for the colonial past, other than saying that he inherits his predecessors’ positions. A more sincere and explicit atonement by the new Ishiba government could bring bilateral relations to a new high ahead of next year’s 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

By Lee Byung-jong

Lee Byung-jong is a former Seoul correspondent for Newsweek, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News. He is a professor at the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University in Seoul. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.