‘Trump may seek surprise NK deal at expense of Seoul’

With Donald Trump positioning himself for a second term in the White House, he and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may renew summit talks, potentially reaching a deal that sidelines South Korea’s key interests, Seoul-based analysts warned.

Observers caution that Trump could, for instance, tactically acquiesce to North Korea's nuclear weapons possession in exchange for a freeze on the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the US mainland -- a concession that could undermine South Korea’s security interests.

Lim Eul-chul, professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul, pointed out "Kim Jong-un’s primary objective is to gain recognition as a nuclear-weapon state and to initiate disarmament talks contingent upon a nuclear freeze."

The Kim Jong-un regime has consistently asserted that it will retain, or even bolster, its nuclear capabilities regardless of who occupies the White House, viewing the US’s hostile policy toward North Korea as a constant unlikely to shift fundamentally, regardless of the administration in power.

"However, Trump’s reelection could significantly fire up Kim Jong-un,” Lim said, noting that it would mark an end to the Biden administration’s North Korea policy, which has emphasized sanctions, pressure and a strategy of strategic patience built around extended deterrence.

Kim Hyun-wook, president of the Sejong Institute, explained that under Trump, US-North Korea dialogue is likely to take a top-down approach, in line with Trump’s negotiating style. This could include direct communication with Kim Jong-un -- as evidenced by the three in-person summits Trump held with the North Korean leader from 2018 to 2019.

“However, the challenge will be whether Trump can balance the necessity of a deal to address the North Korean threat with the likelihood of rejecting any excessive demands from North Korea,” the president told The Korea Herald.

The president argued that the landscape for negotiations has shifted dramatically since Trump’s past summits with Kim Jong-un. North Korea is no longer interested in talks focused on denuclearization, its nuclear and missile capabilities have grown, and Kim has weathered setbacks from past negotiations including the Hanoi summit in 2019.

Now, Kim Jong-un therefore would likely pursue formal recognition as a nuclear-armed state -- a concession that would almost certainly spark strong backlash from the international community. Many of Trump’s advisors would also likely oppose such recognition, Kim from the Sejong Institute explained.

“Consequently, it seems probable that Trump will aim to negotiate a deal while avoiding formal recognition of North Korea as a nuclear weapon state, which could create a rather uncomfortable situation for South Korea,” he concluded.

Echoing this sentiment, Ha Shang-eung, a professor of political science at Sogang University, expressed concerns that Trump and Kim could reach an agreement in which Trump acquiesces to North Korea’s nuclear status -- contrary to Seoul’s goal of achieving complete denuclearization.

Ha further elaborated that if Trump is genuinely convinced he can engage Kim Jong-un in substantive dialogue, the North Korean leader’s primary demand is likely to be recognition as a de facto nuclear-weapon state.

In this scenario, Trump might agree to such a meeting, granting this recognition in exchange for a commitment from Kim to halt ICBM production. Essentially, Trump’s message could be, "You can retain your nuclear arsenal, but stop developing intercontinental ballistic missiles," Ha suggested.

“If Kim were to agree, it would signify the US’s tacit acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state, contingent on the cessation of ICBM development. Trump could then return to the US and claim he successfully eliminated the North Korean nuclear threat, framing it as a diplomatic triumph," Ha said.

"This would be extremely detrimental for us. Kim Jong-un would likely return to his people and proclaim, ‘The US has finally recognized us as a nuclear-weapon state. We’ve won.' It would be a clear win-win for North Korea."

While recognizing the challenges of arranging such a summit, Ha noted that the likelihood of a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un depends on whether North Korean issues remain a priority for the US president-elect and if the North Korean leader signals a clear willingness to engage.

NK on back burner

Experts in Seoul are split on the likelihood of a Trump-Kim meeting under conditions different from those during Trump’s first term.

However, one consensus emerges: North Korea is no longer a priority for Trump. Instead, he faces pressing geopolitical challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel's wars in the Middle East and the persistent US-China trade war, which could overshadow the complexities of North Korea issues.

Min Tae-eun, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated that the fundamental framework of US foreign and security policy is likely to remain unchanged. It will maintain an emphasis on US-China competition and the pursuit of hegemony linked to success in that rivalry while allocating national resources accordingly.

“Although the immediate urgency revolves around the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, which are the most pressing issues currently confronting the US, the primary concern remains the quest for hegemony in the US-China competition — which the US views as intricately connected to Russia and Israel’s wars. Therefore, I don’t anticipate significant changes," research fellow Min said.

“Regardless of whether there is a meeting with Kim Jong-un, my view is that the US will continue to prioritize maintaining the status quo in its North Korea policy, managing variables to ensure that North Korea does not become an unpredictable factor.”

Kim Heung-kyu, director of the US-China Policy Institute at Ajou University and president of the Plaza Project, suggested that Trump may view North Korean issues as a means to turn the tables during politically turbulent times to his own advantage.

“Engaging with North Korea is something Trump may bring up later in his term as a tool for securing political advantage, especially if his other policies struggle to produce effective results. Kim Jong-un, in turn, will likely seek to significantly raise the stakes for such engagement.”

Lim suggested that "Kim Jong-un might deliberately carry out large-scale strategic provocations to secure North Korea a prominent place on Trump’s foreign policy agenda in a second term."

Examples include a potential seventh nuclear test or further ICBM launches.

Silver lining?

Some analysts see a silver lining: the end of the Ukraine war, viewed by Seoul as the key link between Pyongyang and Moscow, could reduce North Korea’s reliance on Russia and likely diminish military cooperation between the two countries.

“If North Korea sees itself as less valuable to Russia, it may start to engage with other countries, such as China, Japan or the US. Given this potential shift, I believe Kim Jong-un would have no reason to decline a summit with Trump,” said Min Jeong-hun, associate professor of American studies at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

Min indicated that a Trump-Kim meeting is plausible, though negotiating denuclearization will become more complex due to North Korea's strengthened leverage since the Hanoi summit with Trump in 2019 broke down.

"This situation presents an opportunity: If the North Korea-US relationship begins to thaw -- especially if the Ukraine war concludes suddenly -- North Korea's strategic calculations could shift, altering the security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula," Min said. "In this context, our government would have the chance to reposition itself and develop potential solutions to address North Korean issues."