[Robert J. Fouser] Dealing with Trump’s comeback

The results of last week’s US presidential election shocked much of the world. Ahead of the vote, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris appeared tied, but Trump ended up winning by a comfortable margin, both in the popular vote and the Electoral College. Anger over inflation and a desire for change were too much for Harris to overcome in her short campaign. Republicans also took the majority in the Senate and narrowly held their majority in the House of Representatives -- though some of these members are set to join Trump's administration -- putting them in a strong position to push Trump’s MAGA agenda.

As only the second president to win re-election after a defeat, Trump’s victory stands as one of the greatest political comebacks in US history. Though not a landslide, Trump became the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush, then an incumbent, in 2004. He became the first Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1988 to win the popular vote in a race with no incumbent running. His electoral vote total was the highest for a Republican since 1988.

What does Trump’s return to the White House mean, particularly for South Korea? More than anything, Trump’s return shows that his 2016 victory was not a fluke but the beginning of a political movement with staying power. In 2016, Trump won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2 percent; he also faced headwinds from the Republican establishment. Now he is in full control of the Republican Party while commanding a popular mandate.

Donald Trump’s strong position now, however, masks important weaknesses that will shape his term. The first, and most obvious, is that Trump enters office a lame duck because he cannot run again in 2028. Because of this structural condition, second-term presidents have to rely on their approval ratings to remain politically relevant. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama all maintained high approval ratings and remained politically relevant in their second terms. George W. Bush, by contrast, saw his approval ratings collapse and left office as a failed president.

The second problem for Trump is the 2026 midterm election. With the exception of George W. Bush, every president since Bill Clinton has seen one of the houses of Congress switch to the political opposition in the first midterm election of his term. The record for midterm elections in the second term is even worse. Every president, except Bill Clinton, since the Civil War has lost a large number of seats. This history suggests that Trump will lose control of the narrowly divided House of Representatives in 2026, which will exacerbate his lame-duck status.

Trump’s third problem is Trump himself. As a narcissist, he is compelled to be the center of attention. Everything needs to revolve around him. His apparent confidence masks deep insecurities that affect his judgment and worldview. Much of the chaos in his first term reflected a lack of discipline and strategic thinking. The chaos kept his approval ratings low, cost him in the 2018 midterms, and set the stage for two impeachments and defeat in 2020.

For South Korea, Donald Trump’s structural and personal weaknesses suggest that the best way to deal with him is to focus on the long view. Former President Moon Jae-in followed this strategy successfully while asserting South Korea’s national interest.

Trade and defense are early flash points. Trump has long believed that the network of US alliances and the free-trade regime has allowed countries to take advantage of the US. These are firm beliefs that he will not change, despite evidence to the contrary. This makes allies like South Korea that host US military forces top targets. Trump’s wrath, however, is directed more toward Europe than South Korea or Japan, in part because of his interest in promoting Indo-Pacific cooperation as a counterweight to China.

The Russo-Ukrainian War, the Middle East and China will likely be the focus of Trump’s foreign policy for most of his first year, if not longer, which will give South Korea some breathing room. At some point, he may try to revive engagement with North Korea, but the country’s recent embrace of Russia complicates any such effort.

Trump will most likely impose tariffs as soon as he gets into office. They are inflationary and bad for business, and the reaction from Wall Street and US consumers will be sharply negative. The tariff chaos, like everything else Trump, will be all consuming, but as the Persian adage holds, “this too shall pass.”

Robert J. Fouser

Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.