변화하는 전세-월세 임대시장 패러다임

Published : Aug 25, 2013 - 21:28 Updated : Aug 25, 2013 - 21:29

서울 내 한 회사에 재직중인 Jasmine HS Kim씨 부부. 연말에 만료될 아파트 전세 계약 때문에 고민이 이만저만이 아니다.

집주인은 부동산 중개업자를 통해 이미 전세를 월세로 바꾸겠다고 통지한 상태. 할 수 없이 서울 내 입주 가능한 전세 아파트를 알아보기로 마음먹었지만, 이 또한 쉽지 않다.

전세 부동산 시장에 나와있는 물량이 워낙 적은데다, 그나마도 전세가가 천정부지이기 때문이다. 그러나 가족의 수입 대부분을 전세 집 한 칸에 쏟아 부을 수도 없는 노릇 아닌가.

대출을 더 늘려 전세를 얻자니 그것도 문제다. 대출상환 기간이 좀 늘어난 것 빼고는 정부의 부동산 대책에서 오는 직접적인 혜택이 그다지 없는 것 같다.

고민에 고민을 거듭한 끝에 Kim씨는 결국 부모님께 손을 벌리는 방법 밖에 없다고 결론짓는다.

Kim씨 부부의 사례가 보여주듯, 현 주거 시장은 전세 물량이 바닥나고 월세가 넘쳐나는, 이른바 급격한 패러다임의 변화에 맞닥뜨린 실정이다. Kim씨 부부나 젊은 세대주들에겐 절대적으로 불리할 수 밖에 없는 양상이다.

그간 임대자와 세입자사이에서 윈-윈 계약으로 존립하던 전세가 결국 발빠른 노년층의 증가와 저금리 기조가 만들어낸 이 부동산 시장에서 퇴화하고 있는 것이다.

전세 하에서 임대자는 전세금으로 다른 부동산을 추가 매입하거나, 이자율이 더 높은 금융상품에 가입할 수 있었다. 또, 세입자는 전셋집에 머물며 월급을 저축해 내 집 마련의 꿈을 키워나갈 수 있었다.

그러나 우리금융연구센터를 포함한 국내 부동산 연구소들은 향후 이런 win-win 전략은 점차 사라질 것으로 예상한다. 전세는 사라지고, 월세가 부동산 시장을 장악한다는 것이다.

국토해양부가 제시한 자료에 따르면, 올해 월세 부동산 공급률은 약 40%로, 작년 34% 대비 급증했다.

(코리아헤럴드 박형기 기자 / 번역 정주원 기자)

<관련 영문 기사>

Korea braces for ‘jeonse’ crunch

Paradigm shift to monthly rent imminent but painful for middle class

Seoul office worker Jasmine HS Kim and her husband are contemplating what to do when their apartment lease expires at the end of this year.

Their owner has already notified them through a real estate agent that she is considering shifting to billing monthly rents, and would no longer accept large-sum deposits, or “jeonse.”

This has prompted them to start looking for available and affordable jeonse apartments in Seoul, but Kim said there are not many choices in the market. Apartment prices are too high, as are jeonse prices, and they are unwilling to pay monthly rent as that would further eat into their income, leaving them less to save.

They are also reluctant to take out another loan just to finance their living expenses as that would increase their financial burden, even though an increased loan extension seems to be the only government policy that can directly benefit them for now.

As they run out of options amid the emerging jeonse crunch, Kim said the current circumstances are compelling them to “reach out to their parents for a little help.”

The ongoing paradigm shift in the housing market, where the number of jeonse apartments is decreasing and that of monthly rental homes increasing rapidly, is making the young generation and the middle class, including Kim, uneasy.

Jeonse, a unique system that offers a “win-win” opportunity to both the owners and tenants, is losing its luster in this age of low interest rates and a rapidly aging society.

Owners were able to use the jeonse funds to further leverage for the purchase of another apartment, or deposit them at banks that offered stable, double-digit returns in years past.

Tenants, on the other hand, were able to buy time by saving some of their wages while living in jeonse apartments, in the hopes of buying a house in the future with their savings, recoverable jeonse deposit and very few loans.

However, this win-win system is losing appeal with domestic economic research centers such as Woori Finance Research Institute projecting that Korea’s jeonse will gradually be phased out and replaced with monthly rents.

Transactions of monthly rental apartments reached a record high, accounting for nearly 40 percent of total jeonse and monthly rents in the first seven months of this year, compared with 34 percent a year ago, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.

Korea’s rapidly aging society and global financial uncertainty are making owners shift to the monthly rent payments to provide them with a stable income, especially as their reliance on post-retirement state pension declines.

With apartment prices already high, fueled by speculation and leverage over the past years, the young generation cannot afford to buy apartments but seek jeonse amid tightened spending and slow wage growth, leading to an increase in the prices of jeonse homes.

Simply put, too many people are chasing after too few jeonse homes.

These socioeconomic factors are attributable to the weakening purchasing transactions, which have not fully recovered even after the government introduced its housing stimulus measures last April, analysts said.

Transactions in the Seoul metropolitan area improved in May and June after the April announcement, but dropped in June and July, data by the Land Ministry further showed.

This indicates that the effects of the stimulus policy introduced in April that included tax cuts on capital gains and property acquisitions were short-lived, prompting political circles and the government to devise follow-up measures.

However, it remains to be seen whether such policies could boost demand for apartments, given that social issues and the problem of the looming apartment price bubble still persist in the market.

The dilemma is that no country can afford to see that bubble burst as such an event would devastate mortgage borrowers, create a chain of negative reactions and adversely affect the real economy, experts opined.

By Park Hyong-ki (hkp@heraldcorp.com)