한국의 최대 무역상대국 중의 하나인 미국이 낮은 성장률 전망치를 내보이며 국내 경제가 4% 성장률로 회복하는데 어려움이 있을 것으로 보인다.
블룸버그통신이 입수한 국제통화기금(IMF)는 ‘세계경제전망’ 보고서 초안에 따르면 IMF는 미국의 올해 경제 성장률 전망치를 기존의 2.0%에서 1.7%로 하향조정했다.
다음주에 발표될 이 보고서는 미국의 자동 예산 삭감(시퀘스터)이 발동됨에 따라 소비가 위축될 수 있어 경제 성장률을 낮췄다고 설명했다.
IMF는 올해 세계 경제 성장률도 1월의 전망치(3.5%)보다 다소 낮춰 3.4%로 수정 했다.
이 보고서는 아울러 "일본을 포함한 몇몇 국가의 양적 완화 정책이 다른 국가에 피해를 줄 수 있다는 우려는 과장된 것"이라며 "중기적 관점에서 주요국 통화의 기초여건에는 큰 변화가 없다"고 판단했다.
미국이 2012년 경제 성장률인 2.2%에서 0.4% 낮은 1.8%로 조정함에 따라 한국은행도 올해 초 2.8%로 잡았던 성장률을 2.6%로 하향조정했다.
한은도 이날 통화정책방향 자료에서 "앞으로 국내경제가 세계경제의 더딘 회복세, 엔화 약세의 영향 등으로 상당기간 마이너스 GDP(국내총생산) 갭을 나타낼 것이라는 전망에는 변화가 없다"고 밝혔다.
그럼에도 불구하고 한은이 금리를 인하하지 않은 것은 현재 정부가 추경예산을 편성하기로 하는 등 경기부양에 나선 만큼 이런 지표들이 점차 나아지고 있고, 하반기엔 경기회복세가 본격적으로 드러날 것이라고 판단했기 때문으로 분석된다.
<관련 영문 기사>
Korea, global economy to under-perform : forecasts
By Park Hyong-ki
Korea is expected to face an uphill recovery toward the trend of 4 percent growth on lower economic prospects of the U.S., one of Korea’s top trading partners.
The U.S. is expected to grow 1.7 percent this year, down from the International Monetary Fund’s initial forecast of 2 percent, according to the Fund’s draft on the global economic outlook obtained by Bloomberg.
The report, due to be released next week, said that the across-the-board spending cuts in the U.S., also known as the sequester, will add downward pressure on consumption, thus to weigh on the country’s gross domestic product.
The Bank of Korea, meanwhile, revised downward its growth projection for Korea to 2.6 percent from the previous 2.8 percent projected early this year on a growth forecast of 1.8 percent in the U.S., down from 2.2 percent in 2012.
A report by the central bank showed that the global economy is expected to grow 3.3 percent, below the IMF’s expected revision of 3.4 percent and down from 3.5 percent initially projected early this year.
The central bank’s growth forecast comes after the Ministry of Strategy and Finance’s revision to 2.3 percent from 3 percent.
The Fund is expected to keep the eurozone’s growth forecast the same at minus 0.2 percent, while the BOK projected a contraction of 0.4 percent.
“The road to recovery in the advanced economies will remain bumpy,” the Fund’s draft reported as quoted by Bloomberg. “The weak ending to economic activity in 2012 and the sluggish beginning in 2013 highlight that important brakes remain in place.”
Despite further slowdown projections both at home and abroad and persistent external pressure for a rate cut, the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the sixth straight month.
BOK Governor Kim Choong-soo said that the central bank will abide by its main responsibility and priority by law of maintaining stable consumer prices through monetary policy, while noting of a recovery in Korea and abroad toward the latter half of this year as its reason for freezing the key rate.
Its policy decision signified of its independence from outside pressure, analysts said which has been gaining traction following the Finance Ministry’s low-growth forecast.
Analysts said monetary-easing expectations may continue on low inflation, but inflation could rise driven by global recovery in the second half of this year.
“The world economy will also be on a more solid footing by the end of this year as the U.S. fiscal drag starts to ease and Europe makes progress on its debt crisis,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.
“These factors would prompt the BOK to look towards tightening policy to anchor inflation expectations.”
(hkp@heraldcorp.com)
