Earlier this year, global investment banks predicted that the US Federal Reserve would raise its base rate two to three times out of the eight scheduled meetings of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee in 2016.
Their projections were based on the hawkish monetary stance of the Fed with the possibility of hikes significantly affecting the global capital market -- particularly emerging economies involving South Korea.
But the US central bank has yet to conduct a hike after it raised the rate in December 2015, which marked the first time in 9 1/2 years.
Unlike earlier predictions, the Fed has taken a relatively dovish position in the first and second quarters, citing other countries’ economic conditions including China’s slowdown and Brexit worries.
Emerging markets, nevertheless, had to be closely alert to an abrupt rate hike by the Fed. They mostly went through bearish or wait-and-see positions whenever the FOMC gatherings were at hand -- in January, March, April, June and July.
The situation appears to be repeating ahead of the next meeting of the FOMC rate-setters, slated for Sept. 20-21. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s hawkish remarks in late August raised the possibility that the rate might be raised in September though the weaker-than-expected US employment index, which was unveiled last week, is curbing the possibility.
Despite the eased worries over a hike, emerging countries cannot fully relax at least until Sept. 21. Any Fed official’s remarks in the coming days could seriously affect the Korean currency’s value against the dollar and the stock market.
It is within bounds to say that the expanded volatility in the dollar-won exchange rate so far this year can be attributable to the lingering uncertainty about the US monetary policy.
And the uncertainty is expected to extend until this year’s last meeting that is scheduled for Dec. 13-14. There is low feasibility that the FOMC will raise the rate during the Nov. 1-2 meeting when the Nov. 8 presidential election is considered.
Analysts had shared the view that chances of a hike in the second half -- at least before December -- were slim due to the presidential race, as US market conditions from a change in interest rates could seriously affect the political event.
In that context, Yellen’s hawkish remarks might be a signal that the Fed will not raise the rate this month. If the employment index was brisk -- as low-key information before it was publicized -- the chair might have tried to maintain a dovish stance by seeking other unfavorable indices.
She has gained the sufficient pretext of weak employment to delay the hike, while Seoul has gained another round of uncertainty for about three months.
Aside from the allegation that the Fed is delaying the hike due to the election, some critics allege that the central bank has been pressured to prioritize its exporters holding price competitiveness in the global stage. It is no doubt that rapid hikes would trigger a strong dollar versus most currencies, which could be a bane to US’ exports and its overall economy.
For Korea, uncertainty involving the timing of the next hike in America is worse than a real tightening in terms of mapping out mid-term economic and monetary policies as well as stabilizing the capital market. This can is applicable to other countries worldwide.
Fed officials should be more cautious in their remarks. Any irresponsible comments would only create more speculative investors in the stock and foreign exchange markets. In the local market, research reports from some securities firms have been exploiting the uncertainty as an effective tool to help massive short-selling of institutions.
In terms of signaling to the US and global market, the Fed has done quite enough over the past three quarters. No more hints are necessary until it really carries out a hike as long as it does not reverse the position to monetary easing.
