IMF warns central banks against careless exit from stimulus

WASHINGTON (AFP) ― Countries will face risks of financial instability if central banks do not manage well the winding down of their easy-money monetary policies, the IMF said Thursday.

Risks do not necessarily come from the extremely low interest rates and high liquidity measures many major central banks have taken since the 2008 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund said in its newest Global Financial Stability Report.

The challenge is more in managing the resumption of conventional monetary policies, it said, especially if damaged banks have not yet fully repaired their balance sheets and remain dependent on highly accommodative monetary policies, the IMF said.

As monetary policy is tightened, higher interest rates may increase credit risk for banks, particularly if the rate increase is driven by a perceived inflation threat rather than from improvement in the economy.

Higher rates also could spur bank losses on fixed-rate securities in the short term, weighing on weakly capitalized banks, the global lender said.

“Even though monetary policies should remain very accommodative until the recovery is well established, policymakers need to exercise vigilant supervision to assess the existence of potential and emerging financial stability threats,” the Fund said.

The IMF warned that a disorderly exit could also unhinge currently well-anchored inflation expectations.