[Andrew Yeo] Optimistic view of US-Korea alliance

As the dust settles from the 2024 US elections, many US allies and partners, including South Korea, are wondering what happens next as Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.

As with any democratic transition, uncertainty exists as a new leader enters office. But this is not any leader. This is former US President Donald Trump who speaks about dictators in friendly terms, demands up to 20 percent tariff increases from US trading partners and openly criticizes security alliances. US allies are bracing themselves for a more turbulent relationship with the US under Trump. However, there are several reasons to remain optimistic about the US-South Korea alliance.

First, Trump and many other Republican leaders will want to sustain US power in the Indo-Pacific region, in part due to long-term US-China competition. In fact, the first US Indo-Pacific strategy emerged during the first Trump administration in 2018. US alliances with South Korea and Japan, which host the majority of US troops in Asia, and mini-lateral partnerships, including the US-South Korea-Japan trilateral and the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, India) will remain fundamental to the Trump administration’s regional strategy. Trump cannot make America great or support a free, open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region without preserving defense ties and semiconductor supply chain networks that run through South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. The conservative think tank Heritage Foundation also mentioned South Korea and Japan as “critical allies” in its Project 2025 -- which may serve as a guide for Trump’s transition team.

Second, Seoul is better prepared to make an early positive impression with the incoming Trump team compared to the first administration in 2017 when South Korea faced its own leadership transition with the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.

The Yoon administration has worked extensively the last 2.5 years with US officials to manage the US-South Korea alliance, develop an Indo-Pacific strategy of its own, and expand its network with partners in Asia, Europe and elsewhere. Yoon will be the only remaining leader to have experienced the historic US-South-Korea-Japan trilateral summit at Camp David in August 2023. As such, President Yoon is in the best position to champion trilateral cooperation as threats from North Korea and China are unlikely to dissipate.

South Korean companies have also invested over $114 billion in the United States in the last three years. President Yoon can underscore to Trump how Korean investments have helped the US reduce supply chain vulnerabilities, boost local economies and provide American workers jobs. In a phone call with Yoon, Trump recently mentioned opportunities to cooperate with South Korea in the shipbuilding industry, perhaps expanding on the recent deal struck with HD Hyundai and Hanwha Ocean to repair US naval vessels in South Korea.

Third, Yoon and Trump, while coming from different backgrounds, may develop a personal rapport in the way that Trump befriended the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe early in his first presidency. Among the Washington think tank community, some experts have remarked that Yoon and Trump exhibit similarities in their style and personality. Both men tend to surround themselves with loyalists, pushing through with decisions even if they remain unpopular. Trump and Yoon both draw political strength from their conservative base and carry an outsize following from disenchanted young men.

Media reports last week suggest that Yoon’s congratulatory call to Trump went well. The two men spoke for 12 minutes and agreed to schedule an in-person meeting soon. Yoon is reportedly practicing golf which may prove useful in cultivating friendlier ties with the golf-loving Trump.

The United States and South Korea have much to gain by standing together in an era of great power competition. New avenues for cooperation await in areas such as advanced technologies including artificial intelligence, economic security and defense industrial production.

I am confident that the Yoon administration and the incoming Trump government will manage any upcoming obstacles to the US-South Korea alliance, just as their predecessors have done.

Andrew Yeo

Andrew Yeo is a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Asia Policy Studies. He is also a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, DC. The views expressed here are the writer‘s own. -- Ed.