개성공단의 ’잠정폐쇄’, 당분간 지속 전망

남한측 체류인원의 전원 철수로 개성공단의 잠정적인 중단 상태는, 남북 양측 모두 전향적인 조치를 취하지 않은 채, 지속될 것으로 보인다.

“남한과 북한이 이번 사건을 계기로 핵 문제와 같은 거시적인 관점의 정치 문제도 해결하려는 것으로 보아 개성공단에 대한 합의는 쉽지 않을 것이다.”라고 조봉현 기업은행 경제연구소 연구위원이 말했다.

2월 출범한 박근혜 정부는 대북 강경책을 쓰지 않았을 시, 평양이 외교 및 군사적 모험을 하려는 시도를 통제할 수 없을 것이라고 밝힌 바 있으며, 평양 역시 남한의 계속되는 압박에 약한 모습을 보인다면, 김정은 정권의 입지가 불안해질 수 있다.

지난 금요일, 개성공단의 마지막 7명의 체류자가 철수했지만, 서울은 평양과의 대화의 가능성을 열어두기 위해 아직 공단에 공급되는 물과 전기를 중단하지 않았다.

양무진 북한대학원대학교 교수는 “7명이 다 내려온 뒤 며칠 뒤에는 전기를 끊게 될 가능성이 크고 그렇게 되면 상황은 끝나는 것”이라면서 “우리가 전기를 끊는다면 북한이 공단폐쇄의 책임을 우리 측에 돌리지 않겠느냐”고 말했다.

북한 국방위원회 정책국 대변인은 5일 조선중앙통신 기자와의 문답에서 공단의 정상화를 위해서는 “우리에 대한 적대행위와 군사적 도발을 먼저 중지해야 한다”고 말했다.

박근혜 대통령과 버락 오바마 미국 대통령간의 첫 한미 정상회담의 결과에 따라 공단의 운명도 결정될 것이다라는 관측도 설득력을 얻고 있다.

만약 회담의 결과, 두 대통령이 북한에 가하는 압박을 더 강화할 것으로 합의를 본다면, 개성공단의 잠정중지 상태는 당분간 지속될 것으로 보인다. (코리아헤럴드)

<관련 영문 기사>

Fate of Gaeseong complex remains bleak

By Song Sang-ho

The inter-Korean stalemate over the suspended joint industrial park in Gaeseong is expected continue as neither Seoul nor Pyongyang appear likely to make the first concessions.

Seoul believes resumption of activities at the complex would first require ever-present political uncertainties to be addressed, before tougher negotiations with the communist state.

All South Korean workers pulled out of the complex Friday, leaving the two Koreas with virtually no means of direct official communication.

“After all, the stalemate would be dealt with from a broader perspective, as the two Koreas and other parties seek to resolve an array of issues including North Korea’s nuclear development, which would make it harder to focus only on the Gaeseong complex.” said Cho Bong-hyun, a senior researcher at the Industrial Bank of Korea. 

“For the resumption, Seoul may seek to secure legal, institutional tools to insulate the park from any political or military conflicts, and ensure smooth border transit, customs clearance and telecommunications.”

The Seoul government, which began its five-year term in February, appears opposed to making the first concessions, given that a soft stance could hamper its efforts to curb Pyongyang’s diplomatic and military adventurism.

For Pyongyang, appearing weak in the face of South Korean pressure could pose a challenge to its young leader Kim Jong-un, who is striving to strengthen the legitimacy of his dynastic rule.

Despite Friday’s pullout, Seoul has not yet cut its supply of electricity and water to the park, leaving room for dialogue with Pyongyang. Without the supply, Gaeseong would turn into the darkness at night with its residents running short of water. 

Seoul has also called on Pyongyang to restore military communication channels.

The communist state on Sunday stressed that Seoul should first stop “hostile acts and military provocations” should it want to normalize the industrial park and restore bilateral communication.

“If South Korea’s puppets are concerned about the fate of the Gaeseong Industrial Park and the bilateral relationship in a state of war, it should first halt hostile acts and military provocations,” said a spokesperson of a policy bureau of the National Defense Commission in a interview carried by the Korean Central News Agency.

Depending on the outcome of the summit this week between presidents Park Geun-hye and Barack Obama, a fresh momentum could be forged for the normalization of the complex, observers noted.

“The summit could mark a watershed in the stalemate should the two leaders agree to focus on engaging more with Pyongyang through dialogue,” Professor Yang Moo-jin of University of North Korean Studies.

“But should the joint summit declaration include words indicating that the allies would apply more pressure to the North to change its behavior, the stalemate could continue for some time, and could also lead to a complete shutdown of the park.”

Park left for the U.S. on Sunday for a six-day visit. She will meet Obama on May 7.

Saying that the complex has been “tentatively suspended” rather than being tentatively closed, Seoul has vowed to do its utmost to normalize its operation. In line of this, Seoul was reportedly considering continuing its provision of electricity and industrial water to the park.

A substation in Munsan, Gyeonggi Province, sends electricity to the 100,000 kW Pyeonghwa substation in Gaesong built by South Korea, which then redistributes the power to the 123 South Korean firms there.

The water purification plant in the complex, which was also built by the South, offers some 21,000 tons of water to the factories, as well as residents in the border town.
(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)