Climate change could cost East Asia up to 5.3 percent of its annual gross domestic product upon damage from floods, droughts, heat waves and tropical storms unless sweeping adaptation measures are undertaken, a study said Monday.
The analysis, presented at a news conference in Seoul by the Asian Development Bank, examines how Korea, China, Japan and Mongolia can better respond to climate change through efficient mitigation and adaptation measures. It was also participated in by scholars from about 10 top universities and think tanks in Asia, North America and Europe based on databases and climate models.
With a heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries to sustain its export-oriented economy, the region produced about 30 percent of the world’s energy-based carbon emissions in 2010, the report said. China was the top emitter with more than 7.2 billion tons, while the figure for Korea shot up 145 percent between 1990 and 2010.
“East Asia needs to shift toward a model of economic growth focused on low carbon emissions and more efficient use of resources,” the paper said.
“Without a combination of price signals and incentives it will be difficult to stimulate the investment that is required to underpin the transition to low-carbon options in sectors such as energy, manufacturing and transport.”
East Asia has been warming since 1960. Compared with the 1961-1990 average, mean temperatures will rise 1.9-2.6 degrees Celsius across the region by 2050 and 3.8―5.2 degrees Celsius by 2090, the study showed.
Countries like Korea and China are pushing for greater energy efficiency, the increased use of clean energy, and market-oriented policies such as a cap-and-trade scheme.
Yet the Manila-based ADB calls for regional cooperation to maximize mitigation effects and boost investment to ensure the resilience of infrastructure and communities toward future climate risks.
If emissions targets are pooled via a regional carbon trading or pricing scheme, the overall cost of reducing emissions may be cut by at least 25 percent, it said.
“A regional climate network to promote collaborative research and the dissemination of information on regional climate change would contribute to the efforts being made by individual countries,” the analysis said.
“This would provide a base for sharing experience in mitigation and adaptation strategies as well as best practices on policies, programs and technologies for addressing climate change.”
By Shin Hyon-hee (
heeshin@heraldcorp.com)
