Here’s an issue that doesn’t get much play in America, but is worth watching in 2012: The rise of Africa.
The continent may seem far from our own concerns here at home, but the emergence of an African middle class would mean new markets for U.S. products ― and more jobs for American workers. The emergence of the Four Asian Tigers ― Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan ― certainly produced that kind of ripple effect here.
Beyond the Arab spring headlines out of the northern part of the continent, Americans don’t hear much from many of Africa’s leaders ― or aspiring leaders ― about its potential in terms of trade, democracy and commerce. It’s time we start hearing more from them.
In its Dec. 3 cover story, The Economist reported on the rise of Africa. The magazine even chided itself for, a decade ago, labeling Africa “the hopeless continent.” The International Monetary Fund now expects Africa to grow by 6 percent in 2011 and almost that much in 2012. The growth is close to that of Asia, The Economist reports.
The expansion is fueled partly by commodity prices favoring Africa, which has large reserves of gold, diamonds and other natural resources. But trade flowing more freely across borders also is driving growth.
As a result, big markets are opening up. Foreign investors get that point. They’ve increased their African stakes tenfold over the last decade.
Another reason to pay more attention is Africa’s potential “demographic dividend.” The continent is home to six of the world’s 10 fastest-growing nations.
In fact, about half of the world’s population expansion is projected to come from Africa over the next 40 years. As was true with Asia, the combination of emerging markets and a large number of people means more places for businesses from the U.S. and elsewhere to sell their products.
To be sure, some of our leaders understand Africa’s potential. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush each have found specific initiatives to carry out there.
Bush just returned from an early December trip, in which he and former first lady Laura Bush launched a campaign to fight cervical and breast cancers across Africa. The Pink Ribbon Red Ribbon effort follows the initiative they began in 2003 to fight AIDS and other diseases across Africa and the developing world.
After he returned, I sat down with the former president at his Dallas office. He spoke of the potential for Africa and the capacity of African leaders to deal with their problems. He ticked off problems such as civil wars, corruption and disease. But he also emphasized that Africa has leaders who understand the need to modernize, including in agriculture. “It makes no sense for sub-Saharan Africa to not be food exporters,” he said.
The question is this: Will enough of our leaders really understand the potential Africa offers the U.S.? I don’t expect Africa to dominate foreign policy discussions during the presidential campaign. But will any of the candidates explain, for example, why continuing the fight against AIDS in Africa makes sense?
Bush said he took up the fight for moral and strategic reasons. He didn’t want an AIDS pandemic to wipe out a generation on his watch. And he knew Africa would become more of a recruiting ground for terrorists if the continent atrophied. Additionally, he thought African trade was in our economic interest.
Unfortunately, there’s a nascent isolationism at play in the GOP presidential campaign. Jon Huntsman takes a big picture view, but Rick Perry typified the skepticism toward developmental assistance when he said: “We’ll have a conversation in this country about whether or not a penny of our taxpayer dollars needs to go into those countries.”
That’s a great sound bite, but we need to realize that developmental issues, like keeping the fight up against AIDS, are in our strategic interest. If Africa keeps growing a middle class, that means more political stability and demand for American goods.
I don’t know about you, but that’s worth paying attention to next year and beyond.
By William McKenzie
William McKenzie is an editorial columnist for The Dallas Morning News. ― Ed.
(The Dallas Morning News)
(MCT Information Services)
