Political predictions for a fast-moving 2012

The pressure is on. Four years ago, I picked Barack Obama to win 353 electoral votes and, twice, I correctly tabbed George W. Bush as a winner, including a 2000 forecast he’d beat Al Gore by four electoral votes. Here is a preview of the road to Nov. 6:

January: Texas Rep. Ron Paul edges Mitt Romney in Iowa caucuses, and fast-closing Texas Gov. Rick Perry nips Newt Gingrich for third. Romney rebounds to beat Paul in New Hampshire, but Perry edges former Massachusetts governor in South Carolina, driving Gingrich from the race, and also wins Florida. In his State of the Union speech, Obama unveils a new jobs program, which Republican leaders reject.

February: Unemployment rate hits 8.8 percent. Republican leaders urge immediate tax cut. Rebuffing them, Obama vows at Hyde Park, N.Y., to match President Franklin Roosevelt’s “bold, persistent experimentation.” Romney captures Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado and Michigan, but Perry upsets him in Arizona.

March: Deadlocked Congress finally extends payroll tax reduction for a year after polls show GOP House control in jeopardy. Vladimir Putin loses Russian election, seeks asylum in U.S. On Super Tuesday, Romney, Perry and Paul divide the spoils, further muddling GOP race. But Romney wins decisively in Illinois

April: Perry edges Paul in Texas primary. After Texas Rangers lose 12 straight games, manager Ron Washington is replaced by former President George W. Bush. Obama, speaking in Charlottesville, Va., says he is a Jeffersonian. Sarah Palin endorses Perry. Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bob McConnell of Virginia and Mitch Daniels of Indiana back Romney, calling for end to GOP battle. He takes New York, Pennsylvania and two New England states, gaining a decisive lead.

May: In Indiana debate, Perry says he would shut down government again to reduce spending, He wins primary there, but Romney captures Oregon. New North Korea president dies suddenly; succeeded by 12-year-old brother. House passes budget resolution eliminating all domestic discretionary spending by 2020, but Senate blocks it. Rangers manager Bush talks Sammy Sosa out of retirement.

June: Romney wins California and New Jersey, clinching GOP nomination. Perry concedes and offers support, but Paul refuses. Despite continuing bad reviews for Chelsea Clinton, NBC promotes her to full correspondent. San Jose Sharks win Stanley Cup, and Miami Heat capture NBA. Obama, at Eisenhower Library in Abilene, Kan., praises Ike’s condemnation of military-industrial complex. Supreme Court upholds individual mandate in Obama health care plan 6-3. Romney vows to replace “runaway justices.”

July: Americans Elect’s Internet convention nominates Paul for president and Palin for vice president, creating a three-way race. Rangers take first place, and Angels name Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg a “strategic adviser.” Obama says all U.S. troops will leave Afghanistan before 2014. Dick Cheney accuses him of undermining democracy.

August: Obama, at California’s Reagan Library, pledges to match former president’s ability to work with both parties. Romney, reaching out to tea party activists, picks South Carolina Sen. James DeMint as his running mate. Congress deadlocks on resolution to adjourn for conventions. Accepting nomination, Romney adopts Gingrich plan challenging Obama to seven three-hour debates. Obama responds with John F. Kennedy’s idea for the nominees to travel and appear together; Romney refuses.

September: After poor GOP convention ratings, NBC replaces Brian Williams with anchor tandem of Chelsea Clinton and Luke Russert. Accepting Democratic nomination, Obama vows to extend health care law. In first debate, Paul, echoing Rep. Michele Bachmann, says he’s opposing Barack Romney, “two peas in a pod.”

October: Obama hails unemployment drop to 8.5 percent. Romney calls it a mirage. DeMint says he’d balance Romney’s “liberalism.” Rangers beat Braves in World Series. Paul wins debates, but Obama leads election polls. Dallas Cowboys lose five of six games; Jerry Jones replaces coach Jason Garrett with former Bush adviser Karl Rove.

November: Obama edges Romney, 48-47 percent, winning 286 electoral votes. Paul gets 5 percent. Republicans hold House, 219-216, but Democrats retain Senate on 50-50 tie. Re-elected Obama urges an end to gridlock, naming Texas GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison as attorney general. Republicans object.

December: Sen. John Kerry named secretary of state; outgoing Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton declines to dismiss a 2016 presidential bid. House Republicans oust Speaker John Boehner, naming Eric Cantor speaker and Dallas Rep. Jeb Hensarling majority leader. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell says his top priority will be to deny Democrats another term in 2016.

By Carl P. Leubsdorf
 
Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him via email at: carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com. ― Ed.

(The Dallas Morning News)
(MCT Information Services)