NEW YORK ― The memories are still fresh at the National September 11 Memorial, where the names of the victims ― including some 150 from Asia and the Pacific ― are inscribed into bronze parapets surrounding twin memorial pools, located in the footprints of the Twin Towers of the destroyed World Trade Center.
Eleven years ago this month, more than two dozen Koreans were among the nearly 3,000 people killed in the United States by terrorist attacks on a date now immortalized as “9-11.” That day, and its aftermath, changed the world in countless ways.
Numerous Asian nations were among the countries who lost citizens that day: by some counts, more than 50 from India died, some two dozen from Japan, another two dozen from southeast Asia and a handful from China.
Yet, while that date and others ― birthdays, anniversaries and deaths of loved ones ― live on in people’s memories, other days pass by with their significance unnoticed until years later, if at all.
With the benefit of hindsight, the world may well look back at July 13, 2012 as another defining moment in time ― the date of China’s true emergence as a regional power and player, if not quite yet a superpower by traditional definitions.
On July 13, for the first time in history, an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit of foreign ministers ended without the usual joint communique, as Vietnam and the Philippines unsuccessfully sought to include the issue of China’s increasing assertiveness over resources-rich areas of the South China Sea. With diplomatic understatement, ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan reportedly described the unprecedented failure as “very disappointing.”
When exactly does a country become a “superpower,” and has China reached that point? As the British Empire and the era of the “great powers” came to an end following World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union emerged as the first superpowers.
These were large, nuclear-armed nations that had through a mix of political, military, economic and technological capabilities, projected power, defended their national interests and influenced nations around the world.
Can one look back at history and point to a specific date or incident when a nation ascends into an elite group of powers? Is there, so to speak, a “superpower moment” that forces others to change behavior and perceptions about a country and pushes nations to acknowledge new power relationships?
These moments may make headlines, grab our attention, and at some level ignite anxieties as we seek to attach meaning and significance to them.
One can argue that the Soviet Union’s superpower moment occurred on Oct. 4, 1957 when it launched “Sputnik” ― the first artificial earth satellite. Fearing the Soviets would militarize space, the United States responded by accelerating its own space program. The “Space Race” was on, culminating in the U.S. lunar landings. Once again, one nation’s actions influenced the thoughts and actions of others, as superpowers do.
We now talk about the emergence of new superpowers, with India and, of course, China as candidates. Conduct an Internet search of “China” and “superpower” and several million results come up, with many predicting China’s achieving superpower status in 20 to 30 years. But, living in Asia ― particularly Southeast Asia ― one senses that countries here already see China as a superpower.
Look more closely at what happened at the 45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting this past July in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. By some accounts, China’s behind-the-scenes influence resulted in summit host Cambodia’s stopping a joint statement that might have included any mention of the Philippines’ and Vietnam’s competing claims with China in the South China Sea. Such claims, it was argued, are strictly bilateral issues and not ASEAN’s concern. Cambodia, as many noted, is also a major recipient of Chinese economic and development assistance.
The failure that July 13 to issue what is typically a non-descript, joint statement grabbed headlines, made people take notice, and provoked anxieties about China’s “peaceful rise.” The so-called “Phnom Penh incident” also sidelined ASEAN’s ability to negotiate as a cohesive unit with China over maritime claims, and underscored China’s ability to influence actions beyond its borders.
In retrospect, was this China’s “superpower moment”?
If it is, it highlights the difference in perspective that some in the West and in Southeast Asia have about China. Regardless of superpower definitions, China is already acknowledged as a nation wielding significant military, economic, political and cultural influence well beyond its own shores ― in much of Asia and the Pacific.
Coming to terms with this helps capture the reality of what is occurring in the region, and should factor into not just Korea’s but any nation’s long-term thinking and commercial and diplomatic engagement. There is no 20- to 30-year timeframe. This is occurring now, and it will be critical for the world to adjust.
July 13 will understandably never dominate the headlines as much as the annual commemorations of that fateful Sept. 11 of 11 years ago, but by some measures, the date “7-13” and its aftermath are already changing the region, if not the world, in countless ways.
By Curtis S. Chin and Jose B. Collazo
Curtis S. Chin is a senior fellow and executive-in-residence at the Asian Institute of Technology. He served as U.S. ambassador to the Asian Development Bank (2007-2010). Jose B. Collazo is a frequent commentator on Southeast Asia and can be followed on Twitter at @josebcollazo. ― Ed.
