Re-elected U.S. President Barack Obama faces a long list of challenges that have deep implications not just for his country but for the entire world. To tackle these tasks, Obama will need courage, insight, and above all things, the cooperation of the Republicans.
The biggest challenge confronting Obama is putting the U.S. economy back on track. The world’s largest national economy is currently reeling under colossal government debt. The debt mountain has topped $16 trillion and keeps growing due to the continued fiscal deficit. Last year, the government’s budget deficit swelled to $1.3 trillion.
To curb the snowballing debt, Obama and Congress agreed to $1.2 trillion in across-the-board spending cuts last year. These cuts, together with a series of tax hikes, are to take effect next year. But the problem is that these austerity measures could trigger another recession if implemented as planned.
It is not just the U.S. that cannot afford another recession. The world can’t either. So the most urgent task for Obama is to find a way to avoid an abrupt $600 billion reduction in fiscal spending, a situation referred to as a “fiscal cliff.”
To remove the recession threat, Obama needs to negotiate with the Republicans, who have retained their control of the House of Representatives in this election. It behooves Obama and the Republicans to agree on a new deficit reduction plan to avoid a disaster.
Another major challenge for Obama is job creation. He owes his reelection partly to the improvement in the unemployment rate in recent months. The rate fell below the psychologically important level of 8 percent in September and October. Yet it needs to be brought down further to help the economy grow faster.
To speed up economic growth, the Federal Reserve has adopted an ultra-loose monetary policy, called quantitative easing. It has been pumping tens of billions of dollars into financial markets every month to boost the labor market.
The Fed actions may improve the U.S. job market and the economy. But the problem is that they push down the value of the U.S. dollar, causing other currencies to appreciate. Countries like Japan followed suit to prevent their currencies from rising too much. As a result, an international currency war was reignited.
The Fed has pledged to continue the controversial monetary policy until the unemployment rate improves substantially. Yet it should understand that its policy has consequences for the rest of the world.
On the geopolitical front, Obama’s top priority will be to expand U.S. economic, military and diplomatic activity in the Asia-Pacific region as the center of gravity is shifting to this part of the world.
Obama’s “pivot toward Asia,” however, is expected to clash with China’s attempt to establish hegemony in this region. China has sought to project itself as an unchallenged regional power based on its growing economic muscle and rapid military build-up.
Recently Beijing has triggered territorial disputes with Southeast Asian countries by claiming most of the Southeast China Sea. To bring weaker Southeast Asian countries to heel, it threatened to use force against them.
The Obama administration is expected to intervene in these disputes to counteract China’s ambitions and to protect and promote U.S. national interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Yet Washington should not try to contain China; rather it should pursue a relationship based on competition and cooperation.
In China, a leadership change is underway. The lineup of the fifth-generation leadership will be unveiled next week. The leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations should endeavor to fashion their relations in a way that promotes peace and stability in the region and beyond.
How they reset their relationship will also have significant implications for the future of North Korea. They should step up cooperation in persuading the North to give up its nuclear weapons and open up its economy.
Obama’s reelection means there would be no big change in Washington’s policy toward Seoul. Yet the intimate bilateral relationship could undergo some change as South Korea will soon elect a new president.
Whoever is elected as South Korea’s next president, maintaining a strong security alliance with Washington should be the top priority.
