The Thai junta has tilted too much toward China and Russia over conflicts with the U.S. and Western democracies.
The National Council for Peace and Order has misjudged changing geopolitical realities in its tilting of Thai foreign policy toward China and Russia in a bid to counter political pressure from the United States and other Western countries over rights violations and democracy suppression.
U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Vietnam, along with his Secretary of State John Kerry’s trip to Myanmar, last week sent a strong message to the Bangkok elite that Thailand’s international status is diminishing quickly.
It is true that Obama’s foreign-policy rebalance towards Asia-Pacific is aimed at containing a rising China, but Bangkok would be wrong to interpret this as a return of bipolar cold war politics.
Waning U.S. power is signaling the end of our unipolar world as China rises economically and politically.
Furthermore, China has territorial disputes in the South China Sea with several members of ASEAN, notably the Philippines and Vietnam. Thailand is not directly involved in the disputes but finds itself in a difficult position between China, a major trade and development partner, and its ASEAN neighbors.
Since seizing power in May 2014, the Thai junta has been tightening ties with Beijing and Moscow through frequent visits to the U.S.’ rivals paid by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, his deputy Prawit Wongsuwan and other senior officials.
Of course, it is good strategy for a medium-sized country like Thailand to retain friendly relations with all global powerhouses. Here, the junta has done the right thing -- but for the wrong reasons. Beijing and Moscow have shown themselves to be good friends, but the Thai junta sought closer ties because of dismay at criticism from Washington and other Western countries. Washington had long been a good friend, so its unrelenting criticism of the coup and junta regime has come as a disappointment to the Thai military.
Yet Western powers and the United Nations are not the enemies. Their criticism of the junta and its government can in no way be regarded as a threat to national security or the national interests of Thailand. Instead they offer guidelines for democracy and development. The rights of citizens in a country where democracy has been the norm for almost a century must be safeguarded. Thais have the right to elect their own premier and lawmakers, to speak and criticize freely and to live in a peaceful society.
All these are enshrined in international obligations Thailand ratified decades ago but which the junta has now violated. These obligations also place a duty on governments around the world to speak out against rights violations in the international community. Russia and China choose not to, preferring a narrower focus in foreign policy, but this does not mean countries that do speak out should automatically become enemies of Thailand.
Past Thai governments have criticized rights violations in neighboring countries like Cambodia and Myanmar, yet the current government now denies others the right to do the same and call Bangkok to account.
There is nothing wrong with the Thai military buying arms from China or Russia, but the government cannot claim it is being forced to do so by the attitude of long-time ally America. The junta has no need to worry about access to the U.S. arms market unless it is preparing to perpetuate its rule. As long as the government has budget and such equipment is necessary and fit for purpose, Thailand will have the right to buy U.S.-made weapons. But placing arms deal in an international political context will complicate Thai foreign policy.
To maintain its balancing act in international relations, the junta must adjust its attitude and perceptions of the global political landscape, restore basic civil rights and democracy and reheat its thawed relations with the U.S. while maintaining engagement with China and Russia.
By Supalak Ganjanakhundee
Supalak Ganjanakhundee is the foreign news editor of The Nation, an English daily published in Thailand. ― Ed.
(The Nation/Asia News Network/The Nation)
