The Duterte dilemma: extreme but popular

The practices and the words of relatively new president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, present a problem for the United States in its relations with that country. What he does, what he says and what may be a tendency on his part to try to play the United States off against China and Russia in East Asia could become a problem.

At this point, given the long-standing although complex relationship between the Philippines, a nation of nearly 100 million, and the United States, at least two questions present themselves. The first is the degree to which Duterte will be able to control and direct overall Philippine policy.

The second question is the degree to which he is just a big-mouthed loose cannon who has, however, behind the bravado, a no-nonsense practical side to him. Wherever Duterte really stands, it will behoove American leaders dealing with him and with the Philippines not to throw the baby (long-term generally good relations with the country) out with the bath — in this case, an intemperate leader who is short on the skill of moderating his speech as president.

Under his leadership, more than a thousand drug dealers and users have simply been killed. He had pursued this policy as mayor of Davao City. The problems of drug dealing and drug use did not go away there but were reduced. His replication of that approach as president seems to be popular — his rating currently stands at 83 percent — but it is clearly extralegal and is considered a gross violation of human rights by some of the rest of the world.

Duterte also shoots off his mouth, using unjustified vulgarity in discussing other world figures, including President Barack Obama and Pope Francis. The Philippines are estimated to be 86 percent Roman Catholic. Obama has declined to meet with him, avoiding even the pro forma meetings the American president has with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Duterte has announced that the most recent joint military exercises that the Philippines held with US forces were the last. They are intended on the American side to bulk up the Philippines’ military capacity to stand up to the Chinese.

Duterte has taken the position that if the United States doesn’t like what he is doing, he can turn to the Chinese and Russians. That is a position that sounds like blackmail at worst, unhelpful at best and definitely unwise and likely to provoke the opposition of many Philippine citizens, which he doesn’t need.

(Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)